China Adoption
What are the current wait times in China (assuming you qualify) for non special needs adoption?

TO Karen Specifically, I see you have 233 LID's left to match. How much longer are you estimating that to take? I am honestly shocked that many of those waiting are not pulling out. I certainly admire their certainty and conviction. I just can't imagine waiting that long. Heck, you figure at least half of the waiters would get divorced during the wait just based on the amount of time that passed (not to mention the stress).
There is a LOT of attrition. After 5 plus years, people are finding other ways to adopt, or getting pregnant, or simply deciding they are too old to wait any longer, or choosing SN adoption.

A LID refers to Log In Date. Having 233 LIDs ahead of us means there are 233 days ahead of us, before we are matched, including weekends. But, right now, China is referring between 3 and 14 days per month (including weekends), and there is no rhyme nor reason for the pattern.

The current wait for NSN is about 5 and a half years. For each month logged in, China seems to refer between 3 and 14 days of that month, and the referrals only come about once a month.

There used to be a pattern to it, but now there really isn't much of a pattern at all.
Some say China is referring a certain amount of days per year (which, for the past 3 or 4 years has been 2-3 log in months per year). While others say it is a certain amount of children per year, to keep the NSN girls being raised within China, even though they are in orphanages and foster care at best- and that would be why some months there are more referrals than others.

For us personally, as of this month, we have waited exactly 5 years, and our LID is April 17th, 2007 (Happy waiting anniversary to us!.. ugh). China is currently on the September 2006 LIDs. So, for us, that gives us another 6 and a half LID months. Assuming China refers 2 weeks of LIDs per month, we would get our referral in 13 months. But, we also have to account for the months when there are less than 2 weeks of LID referrals, so I'm assuming it will be around 2 more years.

When we first started, the wait was 16 months and we were told to prepare for 28 months. So, I doubled that and decided it would REALLY be around 4 years so that my first DD would not get her hopes up. Wrong again.

It's really not the norm to wait for NSN children any more. Now, the norm is to wait for SN children, which can still take around 1 and a half to two years, while the SF (Special Focus) children have become the new SN children. Special Focus being children who are older or have a lot of medical issues diagnosed already. There's been talk that some agencies are rewarded with more of the minor SN children if they encourage more SF children to be adopted, and that is a bit controversial, both in the practice as well as the idea that some PAPs might not be as ready as they thought they were to handle SF.

As for us, we are still holding out for NSN. There's a division sometimes between those who wait for NSN and those who actively seek SN children to bring home. I say to each his own. Sometimes I wonder what the heck we're doing. Im 50 already, and DD is 7. But she is so very good with younger children, and she still insists that she has a younger sister yet to be born. So as long as she holds onto that, I'll hold onto that. DH has always been committed to bringing home one more.

The saddest part of this whole journey for us though, is that we rarely talk to family about it any more. My mom is concerned about my age and having a baby or toddler again, and others in the family just stop asking about it. So, it's something we keep the joy for, just within our immediate family. And that's much different from when we were adopting our first DD, when it only took 9 months.
I've been following china adoptions for several years now and I'm seeing quite a few people that are able to complete their SN china adoption start to finish in just under a year and a half (average). For how long it takes to get a referral kind of depends on what the AP's are looking for. People open to both genders and mild to moderate needs seem to get a referral pretty quickly. Those who are seeking a girl only under age 2, with mild SN's seem to wait the longest for their referrals.

As far as NSN's go it seems like most months they process about 6 days of lids. Sometimes less or more, but 5-6 days a months seems to be pretty typical. I think now something like 70-80% of the adoptions from China now are SN adoptions. If I can get my hubby on board the SN's program is still an option that we will consider.
Karen, I'm sorry your family is not supportive. My parents adopted 4 kids when they were your age. One at a time. For the last one, I think they were even in their 60's (but she was 15 and a sib). My youngest sib is 8 and my parents are 65. She is a girly girl and a rule follower which I think makes it easier being older parents but they are doing just fine. The adopted kids have a lot of advantages my Biological sister and I did not have because my parents have time for them and they are their priority as my parents are winding down their work lives. There is also some financial aid rule that you don't have to include your parents income if they are over a certain age or getting social security. So youngest 3 will have minimal college expenses. My sister and I grew up with nannies and summer camps and not a ton of attention from our parents. SO their are certainly advantages to being older parents. I also notice here that when everyone was 28 or so they started having children and now there is a large group of 40ish people in my social circle that are either just starting or adding on to their families, so I think parents in general are getting older.
Thanks for the inquiry Jen. The hardest part of waiting is not having a real pattern to the wait time, except that it is still going up. If I could count an exact (or close to it) number of days per month, it would be so much simpler.
When we adopted our first daughter, it was approximately 25-35 days of LIDs per month, and they almost always came out at the beginning of the month. So, even though it got really difficult to wait at times, at least I knew when we were going to be "next", or close to it. Now, as Tamara pointed out, I wait to see referrals and at times find that it's only 2 or 3 LID days and all I can do is roll my eyes. Then, the next month it might be 8 or 10 LID days, and I foolishly count the days left with hope against hope that each of the following months will be the same...knowing logically that it won't be. Funny how optimistic we can be sometimes, even when logic tells us to forget it. lol
This site has a great calculator to show the waiting times based on LID. [url=http://chinaadoptionforecast.com/]China Adoption Forecast - updated 2012-01-05[/url] For Karen's LID the calculator shows a referral date of 3-24-2017!! That is a very long wait.

According to the site the rule changes in 2007 have made many PAP's inelligible for adoption in China, including a new upper age limit of 50. According to one couple at my parent's church they waited 5 years for their referral only to be told that they were no longer elligible because the wife was over 50. They were told that they could switch programs to the SN or Special Focus, but they would go to the back of the line.

I think it's terrible that there are some agencies telling PAP's that the current wait is around a year.
oregongirl said...

I think it's terrible that there are some agencies telling PAP's that the current wait is around a year.


You're kidding me :eek:
Really?! Right now, some agencies are telling people the current wait is a year?? :eek:
Why why why do that? All it takes it 5 minutes searching on the internet to know the truth, can they really get away with that?
Carmen, there is an agency with a major landmark of China in their names that is still telling families 6 months to 2 years for the entire process. I think it's criminal to string people along like that, all the while collecting yearly fees to keep their dossier updated. We were scared away from international adoption because of some of the stories that we were hearing regarding ever increasing wait times. In the end I'm glad we chose domestic.
It's horrible if ANY agency is still saying anything less than 5 years!! I've looked at a lot of agency information, and there used to be some that were not updating their wait times, but now, it seems all that I have looked at, do not give a wait time, probably because PAPs and APs alike pointed out the errors.

As for turning 50, my agency has assured me that everything stops at the point the PAPs are logged in. If your parents friends were already logged in, then turning 50 would not apply. The new rules are only valid for anyone logged in after April 2007. Also, switching to SN does not put someone at the end of the wait line, in fact, there really is no "wait line" when PAPs apply for SN. But there does tend to be high competition for one child if the child has only minor SNs. So, I'm assuming your parents friends had something else happening other than turning 50, or maybe they were not logged in prior to turning 50. It has to be something other than what you have heard, unless the agency was for some reason, trying to convince the PAPs not to adopt, or their agency was no longer licensed for IA, and they had to switch agencies?? It's also possible (although I hope not the case) that the agency wanted the PAPs to complete their adoption sooner so the agency could get paid sooner as well..IA agencies are not doing so well financially these days as they were 5 years ago...So they might have given the PAPs misinformation to encourage them to switch to SN or domestic to complete their adoption sooner? Who knows. But I do know the information you got from your parents is not the "whole" story. I would be curious to find out what the whole story was though.

The only thing that would really change the ability to adopt from China if someone was logged in before May 1st 2007, is if a major catastrophe happened to the PAPs such as cancer or death, or if they no longer qualify by income as the family must have a yearly income of at least $10,000 per person in the household, per year.

The China adopt forecast has not been updated since referrals came in December of 2011, so it's not up to date. However, that forecast also assumes referrals will be with an average of 2-3 days of referrals per month. But the norm has been 2-3 months per year, so I think even China adopt forecast is off with it's predictions, even if it were updated. Perhaps it's just my optimistic self again, but at some point, there has to be a turning point. I don't think it will ever be like it was, but I do believe (due to attrition alone) at some point, the swing needs to start moving in the other direction, if nothing else, just a little.
Karen, I think you are right that there is more to their story. From what I understand their combined ages were outside of what China would accept, and their agency mistakenly believed that it was the age at the time of referral not LID that mattered. Apparently it took a little while for China to clarify that. I also think the agency was experiencing some issues as they had been part of the reason that Vietnam closed.

I hope the days fly by for you and that you have your child as soon as possible!
I've ALWAYS wanted to adopt from China. We are still waiting to be qualified. Hubby just turned 30, and I'm not admitting I'll be there soon. I'm in fact in denial(yeah I know we are still youngin's around here). We could start the international homestudy, dossier paper chase.

But I'm sure it will be years before hubby believes we'll be financially ready for an international adoption, I tell him there's at least a 6 yr. wait, so why not start now. Wink China has always been on my heart, and I hope one day we can adopt from there. In fact since we didn't qualify for China, we started in Taiwan before adopting S.Bad experience with an agency and now DH is really shying away from international since then.

I hope your wait ends soon Karen. I've followed your journey since starting here at a.com! I can't wait until your referral post and then of course traveling and homecoming! I'll be celebrating with you over here in my little part of the country. Smile Because you my dear have gracefully waited long enough!
Totally agree KLL. Karen is my excuse for continuing to participate here. I'm not giving up until she has a dang baby home!
Thanks guys! Can't wait till I can show off some pictures of DD#1 holding DD#2. This place has become my home away from home, and I know friends here will rejoice with us. What you're saying means a lot to me, in my little cyber corner of this place. Happy
Referrals started coming in today...Looks like a total of 4 days LIDs....sigh. At this rate, perhaps it will be 8 or more years. I just hope our daughter still gets excited about having a younger sister by the time we get to where we need to be. And Im hoping to have an older toddler referral, so their age difference is not as big. But, to be honest, the older they are at referral, the more scared I get at the possibility of RAD. I know it can happen anyway, but we got sooo lucky with our first daughter. She was well taken care of for 16 months, and never really had to deal with the "normal" things that happen with children who spend that much time in orphanages. Then again, we probably did, but we just kept moving on.
That's depressing. It doesn't seem possible. How many people is 4 days of LIDs?
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