CW called FD's case a straight shot to TPR, yet mother seems to have met conditions for return months ago?

My best guess is there are things going on behind the scenes that you are unaware of, but the CW is. And they cannot tell you. CW could still be stringing you along, or perhaps CW legitimately thinks the BM will never get the child back; she knows why, but you won't. I wouldn't just believe CW outright, because it simply is not the CW's decision - that is in the hands of the judge. However, CWs I know tend to make educated suppositions based upon their experience, which is my guess as to why she keeps telling you to expect to adopt.